Arizona’s home edge is the story

If you’re looking at Monday’s Phillies vs. Diamondbacks matchup, Covers is leaning toward the home side. In Todd Cordell’s betting analysis for Covers, the Diamondbacks are the moneyline pick, with the case built around Arizona’s success at home and Brandon Pfaadt’s ability to keep the ball in the yard.

Covers notes that Arizona has won 40 of 69 games at home, which is a pretty strong backdrop for a series opener at Chase Field in Phoenix. That game is set for Monday, Aug. 31, 2026, with first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET, according to the same Covers game info. The article also says the game will be played indoors, so weather isn’t part of the equation here.

The pitching matchup is a big reason this one has betting interest. Covers lists Aaron Nola for Philadelphia and Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona, and the writeup points out that Pfaadt has allowed hard contact just 27.7% of the time over the last 30 days. It also says he’s allowed 0.82 HR/9 at home, which matters against a Phillies lineup that the piece describes as sitting 11th in homers.

On the other side, Covers says Nola’s improved results over his last six starts have come against weaker competition, and that Arizona represents a step up in class. The article also says the Diamondbacks are nearly 10 games over .500 and sit ninth in xwOBA vs. righties this month. That’s the kind of profile that can make a home underdog feel a lot less like a long shot.

The total and home run angle

Covers’ over/under pick is Under 8.5, and the reasoning is pretty straightforward: both starters have enough in their profiles to keep quality contact in check. The article says Pfaadt has posted a 4.3% barrel rate over the past 30 days, while Nola has a 3.14 SIERA in his past five starts.

For a home run prediction, Covers lands on Corbin Carroll. The piece says Nola has allowed more power to lefties than righties, and that Carroll has produced strong numbers against the pitches Nola leans on most. That’s the kind of matchup detail bettors love to dig into, especially in a game where the pitching is expected to do a lot of the heavy lifting.

Covers also says Arizona has hit the moneyline in 27 of its last 45 games, which adds another layer to the home-team case. So if you’re following the betting angle on this one, the site’s read is pretty clear: Arizona at home, the under, and Carroll as the swing-for-the-fences name to watch.