let's be real: this is the kind of Diamondbacks offseason that can fool people if they only look at the surface. I think Arizona is in a better spot than it was a year ago, but that does not mean 2027 is sitting there waiting to be taken. The roster has more stability. The ceiling is still tied to a handful of names doing real work, and if those pieces wobble, the whole thing wobbles with them.

The core is the point

The biggest reason for optimism is simple. The club is anchored by Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. That is the spine. That is the part that gives this roster a chance to look like a playoff team instead of just another decent one. But here’s the thing nobody wants to say: a core only matters if the rest of the roster stops leaking runs and stops leaving holes in places that should already be covered. How many times can a team call itself close before “close” starts sounding like a warning label?

Corbin Burnes and Justin Martinez matter because they are supposed to be Day 1 contributors after missing most of 2026 following Tommy John surgery. Burnes is expected to sit atop the starting rotation. Martinez is expected to work the back end of the bullpen. That is not a luxury. That is the difference between a staff that can hold up and one that spends the season chasing its own mistakes. If those two are right, the whole pitching picture changes fast.

The bats have to carry their weight

Gabriel Moreno is another swing piece, and I mean that in the biggest possible way. He is coming off a career year as a batting champion, and that kind of production changes the temperature of a lineup. Nolan Arenado is in the mix too, and he already showed there was more in the tank at age 35 than he showed in his career-worst 2025 campaign. That matters. Veterans do not get judged on nostalgia. They get judged on whether they can still tilt a season.

Then there are the younger names. Ryan Waldschmidt, Tommy Troy and Jose Fernandez each got their feet wet in Major League Baseball, while Jordan Lawlar showed signs of growth when healthy. That is where the margin lives. Not in the headlines. In the development. In the little jumps that turn a mid-80s-win team into something more dangerous. And if you want the blunt truth, that next tier is exactly where Arizona has to go, because the roster already proved it could land at 86-76 and still miss the postseason.

Mike Hazen already owned part of the mess, saying the first-half position-player plan and the deadline moves did not do enough and left the team naked in places it did not need to be left naked. That is the admission. The answer now is execution. The payroll is expected to go down, according to owner Ken Kendrick, after the club spent more on its roster in 2026 than it ever had before. So no, this is not going to be easy. It is going to be a test of whether the right players can carry the load when the margin gets thin. And that is exactly why these five names matter so much.

— Stephen A. Spliff