I’m taking the Cardinals here. Flat out. This feels like the kind of Week 2 spot where the underdog label is doing too much work and the matchup is doing the real talking. Arizona has a real path to the upset, and it starts with the fact that Seattle is not rolling in with its first-choice quarterback.

That matters. A lot. The Cardinals are getting a backup in Drew Lock after Sam Darnold’s hip injury, and that changes the whole temperature of this game. Before the season, Arizona was being talked about by many as the worst team in the NFL. Now? Now there’s a chance to move to 2-0. That is not nothing. That is the kind of swing that can flip a week, a mood, a locker room, all of it.

And look, I know the recent history is ugly. Ugly ugly. The Cardinals have lost nine straight to Seattle, by an average of 9.6 points, and last year’s meeting was a disaster from the jump. Two fumbles returned for touchdowns in the first 16 minutes. Down 35-0 by the middle of the second quarter. That is not a game, that is a public humiliation. But I’m not here to pretend history doesn’t exist. I’m here to say history is not the same thing as destiny.

The cleanest reason to like Arizona is simple: there is a way to beat this Seahawks defense, and the Cardinals already showed they can lean into it. Last season, Seattle was the 11th-best defense against 11 personnel, and far and away the league’s best against other sets. Translation? If you’re going to poke this team, 11 personnel is the lane. In Week 1, nearly all of Arizona’s offensive success came out of 11 personnel. That is the blueprint. That is the opening.

Now, the Cardinals still have to do the dirty work. The run blocking has to improve after Mike LaFleur said they left “a lot out there” in Week 1. And yes, Seattle is coached well under Mike Macdonald. Nobody is sneaking up on that. But I keep coming back to the same thing: Arizona has a chance to make this game about its strengths instead of Seattle’s comfort.

That’s why I’m on the upset. Not because the Cardinals have earned trust. They haven’t. Not because the Seahawks are suddenly vulnerable in every way. They aren’t. I’m on Arizona because the matchup gives them a real shot, the quarterback situation tilts the field, and a 2-0 start is sitting right there if they can just grab it.

And right now? I think they do.

— Stephen A. Spliff