let's be real: this is the kind of late-season game that tells you exactly who’s ready and who’s just trying to survive the calendar. I like Dallas here. A six-game win streak is not a fluke, and when a team is chasing a season-high seventh straight with the playoffs already locked in, that’s a group playing with purpose. What else do you call it when the margin for error is this thin and every win still matters?

The setup is simple. The Dallas Wings are 26-16, and they’re heading into Monday, Sep. 21, 2026, at 10:00 p.m. ET to face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center. Fans can watch on KPHE, and the game is available to stream on Fubo. That’s the whole deal. No mystery. No spin. Just a team that’s been rolling against a Phoenix squad that’s 15-27 and already out of the playoff picture, so tell me again why Dallas shouldn’t walk in with the sharper edge?

Paige Bueckers is the reason this feels even more lopsided. She’s averaging 20.6 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game on 51-40-86 shooting splits, and that’s MVP-caliber production by any honest standard. She also just put up 26 points, five assists, four rebounds, and three steals in Dallas’ 87-82 win over Phoenix two days earlier. Arike Ogunbowale added 22 points in that one. So what exactly changes in the rematch when the Wings already showed they can win the matchup and win it with their stars driving the bus?

Phoenix, to its credit, still has pieces worth watching. Lexi Held led the Mercury in that recent loss with 21 points on 7-for-11 shooting, and Alyssa Thomas added a triple-double with 19 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. But Kahleah Copper and Kelsey Plum missed that game, and Phoenix is now leaning on Held, Shay Ciezki, and Kara Dunn in larger roles. That’s a different kind of pressure, and it’s not the kind I’d want against a Dallas team that’s already proven it can close.

Here’s my take, plain and simple: Dallas should handle this. The Wings are in the playoff race, they’re within 2.0 games of fourth place, and they’re only a half-game from falling to eighth. That means urgency. That means edge. That means the better team has every reason to play like it. And if you’re looking for the cleanest read on this matchup, it’s right there in the standings and right there in the streak.

— Stephen A. Spliff