let's be real: I like Arizona here. Not because this is some easy spot. It isn’t. I like the Wildcats because this is the kind of game that tells you whether a team is ready to stop talking about the Big 12 and start acting like it belongs in the race.

Arizona is 3-1 and 0-1, and that opener loss at BYU still hangs over the whole thing. That’s the part nobody wants to say out loud. You can’t call it a clean start when you’ve already dropped the league opener and now have to stare down the possibility of an 0-2 Big 12 start. In what world does that feel like a team that can afford to coast when Cincinnati walks in at 4-0 and 1-0, riding its best start since 2021 and bringing a defense that has been good enough to make people pay attention?

Still, I’m not buying the idea that Cincinnati is walking into Tucson and just taking over. The Bearcats have been careful with the ball, sure. They have yet to throw an interception and have only two lost fumbles. Arizona, meanwhile, has thrown three picks and also has two lost fumbles. That matters. It matters a lot. But if both teams are sitting in the 40s in scoring defense and both are allowing around 20 points per game, then what are we really talking about here except a game that should come down to who handles the pressure better when the margin gets thin?

And that’s where I land on Arizona. The Wildcats are at home. The crowd matters. Family Weekend matters. The first trip to Tucson for Cincinnati matters too, because new surroundings can turn a sharp team into a slightly uncomfortable one, and slightly uncomfortable is all Arizona needs to turn this into a fourth-quarter fight. Cincinnati is averaging over 40 points per game, and that’s real. But Arizona has enough to make this ugly, make it tense, and make it come down to the final possessions.

So yes, I’m taking Arizona 31-28. Not because the Wildcats have been perfect. They haven’t. Not because the Bearcats have been bad. They haven’t. I’m taking Arizona because this is the kind of game where urgency, home field, and a little bit of desperation usually beat the cleaner record. And if you’re asking me which side I trust to make the bigger play when the game tightens up, I’m not hesitating.

— Stephen A. Spliff